Face It: Democracy Isn’t for Everyone. By George Jonas.

Democracy — Your mileage may vary. By George Jonas. National Post, August 24, 2013.

Jonas:

Egypt is a sufficiently large and complex country to stymie not only friendly foreigners who try to rule it, but its own inhabitants. What seems evident is that ruling it requires the support of the military, and the support of the military cannot be taken for granted by anyone.

 

Egypt’s regime change this summer, though precipitated by huge popular demonstrations, is, for all intents and purposes, a military coup. Few dispute this, but let me go further and suggest that Egypt experienced two military coups in less than three years, disguised as popular revolts. The first coup toppled the long dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak; the second nipped the attempted dictatorship of Mohammed Morsi in the bud. It appeared both Mubarak and Morsi thought (or hoped) that Egypt’s military under General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi would side with him against Egypt’s rebels, whether Islamic fundamentalist or liberal secularists, but the general ended up siding simply with himself both times. Now he seems all set to hold the reins of power in his own hands until someone capable, and of whom he approves, agrees to hold them on his behalf.

 

The Egyptian military may be every bit as as loyal to its country as other militaries are to theirs, but it is loyal to its own concept of Egypt, not somebody else’s. They don’t like an ex-military man like Mubarak when he shows signs of trying to start a dynasty in his old age, and like an ex-Muslim Brotherhood activist like Morsi, who uses his electoral victory to build a theocracy in Gen. el-Sisi’s Egypt, even less. The Junker-class of the country may not be democrats, but they seem equally uninterested in becoming armed servants in King Mubarak’s court or soldiers in the pay of some bearded council of ayatollahs, like Muslim equivalents of the Pope’s Swiss Guard. They want to rule themselves, or even better, have someone rule on their behalf.

That’s what everybody thought Mubarak did for many years, as he may have, until he started working for himself. A long-time dictator can easily develop the delusion that he doesn’t work for the generals, the generals work for him. If so, it was a fatal error. It made Mubarak’s illusion of having the military “behind him” actually mean that he had his enemy at his back.

 

Every culture wages war its own way. In Egypt military coups are demilitarized. They are ostensibly civilian conflicts, instigated and carried out by civilians, at most involving the police. The soldiers don’t leave their barracks until the civilians are at each others’ throats, then show up with the big guns, do the real coup under the guise of restoring peace, and return to barracks with a renewed lease on power as their trophy. In a coup, Egyptian-style, the contestants box in the ring for the championship, and the referee gets to take home the belt.

 

The events that led to Gen. el-Sisi & Co. taking over Egypt had no single cause, but the Obama-administration kick-started the process with the President’s 2009 speech at Cairo University. “A New Beginning,” the title chosen for Obama’s address, was a performance worthy of the sorcerer’s apprentice and had roughly the same result.  The convolutions of the region haven’t subsided yet. On the whole, it is a good idea not to push buttons without knowing what they might activate, which in some parts of the world may mean not pushing any buttons, at least for a while.

 

Two years ago I wrote that toppling strongmen in the Middle East may or may not be good news for Western democracies, and may or may not be a good idea for the countries involved. It depends on who replaces the strongmen. Stronger men? Weaker men? Better men? Democrats?

 

What I didn’t write then, but will write now, is that if it’s democrats, it may not be good news for democracy. Democrats coming to a region before it’s ready for them, can have a deleterious effect on both the region and democracy.

 

Democracy is a superior system when it functions, but so far it hasn’t functioned consistently except in a handful of Western countries. Like an exotic car, it’s sensitive, and requires expert drivers and well-paved roads. On unimproved back roads a simpler, sturdier design performs more reliably. A stable, benevolent autocracy may offer more mileage and a safer drive than a volatile, sensitive democracy under some circumstances.

 

In February, 2011, I wrote that the great Western democracies were never above accepting help from tin-pot dictators, only above helping them when they got into trouble. Strongmen were well advised to remain strong, because they couldn’t count on the West even for refuge, let alone rescue. Now with Egypt’s new rulers, we have the choice of sitting on our democratic high horse and say to Gen. el-Sisi: You can’t be our friend unless you let our enemies rule your country. You won’t see a penny, unless you honour the election results.

 

Or President Obama can say, well, I won’t make any speeches in Cairo for a while. How is that for a new beginning?